Inherently low hazard ice climbs in the San Juans

Have a group going this week and the suffer candy doesn’t give much (assuming for liability purposes) for objectively lower hazard ice climbs around the San Juan’s. It mentions cascade creek, silver Cree rd, Ames ice hose, camp bird rd and the ice park obviously. I think bridal veil, horsetail, bear creek falls seems lower hazard as well..? 

I’m wondering if anyone knows of specific ice climbs/areas (names, coordinates etc) with inherently lower risk I.e. generally a lower risk of an avalanche while climbing in the ghost vs ice fields parkway. 

I am also very interested in this topic. Even bought suffer candy with hope of learning more details about avy exposure of each climb, but as you mentioned it has basically zero info 

I have noticed this on Dexter creek slabs
"Despite not having a large bowl above it Dexter can still have unstable snow conditions. On 1/15/07 I watched many small (but large enough) avalanches come loose"

I'm told Climb Avy Aware plans to give ATES ratings to Eureka routes before next season

Ellen S wrote:

I am also very interested in this topic. Even bought suffer candy with hope of learning more details about avy exposure of each climb, but as you mentioned it has basically zero info 

I have noticed this on Dexter creek slabs
"Despite not having a large bowl above it Dexter can still have unstable snow conditions. On 1/15/07 I watched many small (but large enough) avalanches come loose"

I'm told Climb Avy Aware plans to give ATES ratings to Eureka routes before next season

That would be awesome to get something similar as to an ATES rating on climb like will gadd at least does a high medium low rating in his app. This would be very helpful for many people that want to climb around the SAN Juan’s and was quite an oversight by Nelson when putting together the guidebook but who am I to say that I guess. Although I suppose had Nelson done that there could be some serious ethical conflicts on his conscience if people did go to climbs he thought were lower hazard and something happened to them.

I think overall from what I’ve gathered is that for the climbs in Eureka, it’s generally quite a high hazard area and there’s no real good climb where a party could feel safe in considerable avy conditions. Hopefully someone here can help provide some reasonable insight into what we could climb without as much worry given the current state out there and warm temps this week.  

I'd suspect that the reason you don't see the guidebook giving you exact beta on what climbs have avy hazard is that close to every route in the book either is in a slide path or the approach crosses a path, many climbs you can mitigate the danger by using a different approach, or the current conditions are stable enough to justify going for it, or it already slid, Etc. but for a guidebook author to say it's safe would be pretty irresponsible, could be totally safe today and a deathtrap tomorrow... I think that the ATES style scale is somewhat useful but it's still a general guideline for a complex problem, best to show up, look at the slopes you are crossing under and climbing under, look at what the sun is hitting be aware of the avy forecastand generally pay attention.

I spent 4 weeks in the San Juans for a college credit avalanche forecasting class. My conclusion: wait for corn snow.

Grant Kleeves wrote:

I'd suspect that the reason you don't see the guidebook giving you exact beta on what climbs have avy hazard is that close to every route in the book either is in a slide path or the approach crosses a path, many climbs you can mitigate the danger by using a different approach, or the current conditions are stable enough to justify going for it, or it already slid, Etc. but for a guidebook author to say it's safe would be pretty irresponsible, could be totally safe today and a deathtrap tomorrow... I think that the ATES style scale is somewhat useful but it's still a general guideline for a complex problem, best to show up, look at the slopes you are crossing under and climbing under, look at what the sun is hitting be aware of the avy forecastand generally pay attention.

Totally agree and it would be very useful if a guidebook would give those kind of details like:

* You can mitigate the avy danger by going X approach. or by rapping the route instead of a walkoff. etc. 

* This climb has a huge bowl above which has been historically known to slide (frequently or rarely? Large and unsurvivable or small and survivable?) Vs this climb has a smaller bowl, or a forest above which usually doesn't slide except in extreme conditions. etc. 

* This climb is particularly prone to windslab problems / wet slides in spring / whatever 

* The terrain above this climb is visible from the road and you can make a call on the day. Vs. another climb's terrain is completely invisible and you're going in blind. etc. 

* Taking all those factors into consideration, X climb are usually only done in November and in rare Low avy danger periods. Vs. Y climbs are often done throughout the winter. (risk tolerance is personal yadda yadda yadda, but risk tolerance is only one input to decisions, the other being how risky the climb inherently is)

Sometimes these details can be gleaned from random MP comments, sometimes not. They are local knowledge that is difficult to obtain without being familiar with the area. i.e. the kind of info that good guidebooks often provide. I'm more willing than most to figure out the GPS location of climbs in advance and inspect them on caltopo, google earth and Copernicus browser. but still the amount that you can figure out from those tools is limited and no substitute for local/historical knowledge.

I was just there 25th-28th and due to the snowstorm that came in on the 25th we were very worried about it do we just asked the opinion of every guide we came across in the park on the 25th and 26th. Our #1 objective was Horsetail Falls. The opinion was the danger was low but that the snow to the left of the first pitch presents a possible hazard. It was suggested we do Charmin Tube or Dexter Slabs. We opted to do Charmin on the  27th and it was absolutely fantastic. One guide mentioned that we should be heads up at the base of the second "pitch/ice scramble" due to the fact that as it warms up some rockfall may occur. A softball size chunk of stone did in fact pinball its way down from the cliff band to the right landing 20ft away. That was the only danger we encountered. 

A party on the climb told us they had done Horsetail 3 days earlier and that the 1 inch of snow that fell overnight was not going to cause any avy danger. We went for it the next day. There was in fact no avalanche danger at all however the first pitch has two options. Far left is WI 4 and you will get soaking wet. The right side is WI 5 and free of any running water or spray from it. However the ice on both sides is comprised of chandalier layers making your screws virtually worthless until you hit the plastic ice 40 to 60 feet above. Beyond that the climbing is fun and the 4th pitch was the best ice we encountered during our entire stay.

Hope that helps.

The Ice Park is the safest place to avoid objective hazard.  Just beware the human hazards!  The wild climbs all have hazards, some much more so than others.  Ice climbing no matter what is rife with potential danger, especially so in the wind, sun, shite snowpack, and choss of the San Juans.  

Horsetail is in an incredibly exposed location for rockfall.  Steve House's client died on Dexter from a singular random strike from above to the helmeted noggin.  The same party was been burried three times in avalanches during one rescue in Eureka.  The list goes on and on

Derek Seymour wrote:

I was just there 25th-28th and due to the snowstorm that came in on the 25th we were very worried about it do we just asked the opinion of every guide we came across in the park on the 25th and 26th. Our #1 objective was Horsetail Falls. The opinion was the danger was low but that the snow to the left of the first pitch presents a possible hazard. It was suggested we do Charmin Tube or Decter Slabs. We opted to do Charmin on the  27th and it was absolutely fantastic. One guide mentioned that we should be heads up at the base of the second "pitch/ice scramble" due to the fact that as it warms up some rockfall may occur. A softball size chunk of stone did in fact pinball its way down from the cliff band to the right landing 20ft away. That was the only danger we encountered. 

A party on the climb told us they had done Horsetail 3 days earlier and that the 1 inch of snow that fell overnight was not going to cause any avy danger. We went for it the next day. There was in fact no avalanche danger at all however the first pitch has two options. Far left is WI 4 and you will get soaking wet. The right side is WI 5 and free of any running water or spray from it. However the ice on both sides is comprised of chandalier layers making your screws virtually worthless until you hit the plastic ice 40 to 60 feet above. Beyond that the climbing is fun and the 4th pitch was the best ice we encountered during our entire stay.

Hope that helps.

Thanks Derek, This is awesome! Really appreciate the feedback and suggestions/beta from your trip. I think horsetail is a good option as well for generally lower hazard however it seems it’s not exempt from other hazard such as rockfall or sections of compromising ice which is also something we always have to be conscious of in the absence of avy danger.

It looks like the CAIC just moved the area from considerable to moderate which is a good sign I think but we will still keep our wits about us.

I think the plan is as to hit a few of the big classics around like gravity’s rainbow, Kennedy’s gully, or the ribbon in purse and then stairway, whorehouse, highway in eureka of conditions were good but pivot to some of the harder climbs twitch little avy hazard in telluride like Ames ice hose or bridal veil and look for some low hazard mixed lines to dry tool while in silverton if conditions were still bad.

I’ll definitely relay those to the group though to get their thoughts! How was the approach to Charmin tube? I read on the MP page that you have to access it from the amphitheater or climb cascade first? And are the gps coordinates generally correct for the approach? Seems like a great climb to warm up on I think 

Stiles wrote:

The Ice Park is the safest place to avoid objective hazard.  Just beware the human hazards!  The wild climbs all have hazards, some much more so than others.  Ice climbing no matter what is rife with potential danger, especially so in the wind, sun, shite snowpack, and choss of the San Juans.  

Horsetail is in an incredibly exposed location for rockfall.  Steve House's client died on Dexter from a singular random strike from above to the helmeted noggin.  The same party was been burried three times in avalanches during one rescue in Eureka.  The list goes on and on

Yea totally understand that. And it’s not soemthing I want to take lightly. There will always be objective hazard with something when you’re climbing we just want to lower the chances we’ll have to be subject to something though especially avy danger if we can. Will Gadd’s app was great for that in the Canadian Rockies however. It sees hard to get a sense of what climbs are more trigger prone for a slide, a catastrophic slide or maybe a genera Awareness a slide could occur approaching the climb.

Seems like there are some climbs that are objectively lower in unheard though as I’m reading and looking at topos  like horsetail, bear creek falls, Ames ice hose, charmin tube etc. do you feel that’s consistent with your knowledge and experience and if so are there any other great climbs you know of with slightly less inherent hazard than say the ribbon, or the well known classics  in eureka that sees a lot of activity 

Ray Lovpal wrote:

Thanks Derek, This is awesome! Really appreciate the feedback and suggestions/beta from your trip. I think horsetail is a good option as well for generally lower hazard however it seems it’s not exempt from other hazard such as rockfall or sections of compromising ice which is also something we always have to be conscious of in the absence of avy danger.

It looks like the CAIC just moved the area from considerable to moderate which is a good sign I think but we will still keep our wits about us.

I think the plan is as to hit a few of the big classics around like gravity’s rainbow, Kennedy’s gully, or the ribbon in purse and then stairway, whorehouse, highway in eureka of conditions were good but pivot to some of the harder climbs twitch little avy hazard in telluride like Ames ice hose or bridal veil and look for some low hazard mixed lines to dry tool while in silverton if conditions were still bad.

I’ll definitely relay those to the group though to get their thoughts! How was the approach to Charmin tube? I read on the MP page that you have to access it from the amphitheater or climb cascade first? And are the gps coordinates generally correct for the approach? Seems like a great climb to warm up on I think 

Gravity's tends to fall down rather quickly in the sun, so don't be too surprised if it doesn't exist. Kennedy's rarely forms and is a bad idea if the sun is on it. The Ribbon could be the most avalanche prone chunk of ice in the state..

Charmin is generally safe except for rockfall. Cascade rarely forms but the amphitheater access is straightforward. Whorehouse wouldn't be fun if it's nuking but otherwise it's not super touchy. When it goes, it goes big. The same can probably be said for Stairway though having personally witnessed an unsurvivable slide on it I'd give a wider berth.

Dexter, Ames and Bridalveil all can have non trivial avy hazard on the approaches, so pay attention to trigger zones.

Ames Falls (not Hose) is worth climbing when formed and has practically no avalanche potential. Out by Blue Mesa, Chipeta Falls has low avy hazard but can be sun affected. Blue Mesa Smear is always in and hazard is generally low. None of the climbs in Grand Junction have any avy hazard, nor often any ice, but No Thoroughfare is a classic. Sundance (Silverton) is at the bottom of a huge south-facing gully so a touch safer than everything else in South Mineral, if you like walking/skiing approaches.

Ames Ice Hose is in a pretty safe spot.  Uniquely situated below a plateau, not a bowl or cliffs.  The ice above the power station, and the climb to the right of the Hose, as well.  Fresh snowfall changes all, especially if its been warm n dry afore.  I can go take a pic of conditions in the next day or two, if you're interested in the Ice Hose.  Its spicy (:   

If it snows in the two days afore your climb, sluff avalanches (or much bigger) are the worry.  Dont be in Eureka after or during snow.  Wind can move a lot of snow around; something to be wary of.  If the sun shines bright and warm, rockfall is the concern.  Early mornin, stuff is frozen.  Sun hits high, it all trickles down below.  

Topographic maps betray the hazards of avalanches and rockfall where you may wish to climb.  The weather decides the rest

Stiles wrote:

Ames Ice Hose is in a pretty safe spot.  Uniquely situated below a plateau, not a bowl or cliffs.  The ice above the power station, and the climb to the right of the Hose, as well.  

Stuff like this is exactly why the guidebook doesn't give recommendations, totally true that the hose itself is about as safe as SJ ice gets, however the approach goes through significant avy terrain, much of which is sneaky and doesn't look that steep, look at it on a map with slope shading though and you realize that a good portion of the galloping goose trail is in the starting zone for what can be really big avalanches, while it's fine much of the time big snow events, or big wind events can drastically change that...I've kicked off a large slide walking out after climbing on a stormy day, during moderate avy conditions, and I know a couple of others who have done the same, blanket statements of "this is safe" don't capture the whole picture.

BV is very similar, close to zero worry on the climb, but the approach goes through 3 paths that have the potential to go absolutely huge, stormy days or windy days it's a good idea to keep your head on a swivel and be open to bailing if something seems off...

Ellen S wrote:

I am also very interested in this topic. Even bought suffer candy with hope of learning more details about avy exposure of each climb, but as you mentioned it has basically zero info 

I have noticed this on Dexter creek slabs
"Despite not having a large bowl above it Dexter can still have unstable snow conditions. On 1/15/07 I watched many small (but large enough) avalanches come loose"

I'm told Climb Avy Aware plans to give ATES ratings to Eureka routes before next season

Ellen—that is our plan, but it assumes we come up with the money and human-power to do the ratings. Working on it!

Ray Lovpal wrote:

Thanks Derek, This is awesome! Really appreciate the feedback and suggestions/beta from your trip. I think horsetail is a good option as well for generally lower hazard however it seems it’s not exempt from other hazard such as rockfall or sections of compromising ice which is also something we always have to be conscious of in the absence of avy danger.

It looks like the CAIC just moved the area from considerable to moderate which is a good sign I think but we will still keep our wits about us.

I think the plan is as to hit a few of the big classics around like gravity’s rainbow, Kennedy’s gully, or the ribbon in purse and then stairway, whorehouse, highway in eureka of conditions were good but pivot to some of the harder climbs twitch little avy hazard in telluride like Ames ice hose or bridal veil and look for some low hazard mixed lines to dry tool while in silverton if conditions were still bad.

I’ll definitely relay those to the group though to get their thoughts! How was the approach to Charmin tube? I read on the MP page that you have to access it from the amphitheater or climb cascade first? And are the gps coordinates generally correct for the approach? Seems like a great climb to warm up on I think 

The approach for Charmin Tube is very simple. Unless you are very lucky lower Cascade won't be in so Park at Amphitheater and hike up the campground road. After leaving the road and gaining the well worn trail go straight, up an incline slightly right then back left. The trail will split, go left and contour the slope heading towards the canyon that contains Cascade Creek. You will go up through a small notch then up through several switchbacks. The trail levels off and takes you directly to the base of the first pitch. The approach takes about 20-30 minutes. Get as there early as possible. Guides que up around 7AM.

Derek Seymour wrote:

[...] A softball size chunk of stone did in fact pinball its way down from the cliff band to the right landing 20ft away. That was the only danger we encountered. 

[...] There was in fact no avalanche danger at all[...]

I don't know these areas or the conditions but I do want to point out a potential issue with this line of thinking: no evidence of avalanches is not evidence that there was no avalanche danger.

In Bruce Tremper's book, he estimates that only 5% of people travelling in dangerous conditions will actually trigger a slide. 95% of the time, those people will not trigger a slide, and may take it as  positive reinforcement that their decision was correct, even though it wasn't. 

This is why travel in avalanche terrain is such a "wicked problem" - you get good feedback until you get bad feedback, and then you're dead so you can't learn from it. 

I'm not criticizing your choices, which may well have been just fine. Only the conclusions you appear to draw from the lack of avalanches (unless, like, the reason there was no danger was that there was no snow, or some other factor that meant there really was no danger, in which case I'm being needlessly pedantic).