Weather forecast accuracy? - Gunks

Hi all,

I have a one day window to climb at the Gunks on June 26th. I was wondering how accurate (or wildly inaccurate) extended forecasts for the region tend to be. 

I'm staying hopeful that we won't be rained out, but see rain in the forecast for New Paltz: weather.com/weather/tenday/…

and no rain in the forecast for the weather proxy that mountain project uses: https://www.theweather.com/montgomery-orange-county-airport.htm?d=second-week

I'd appreciate any insight you might have!

In the northeast it is frequently difficult to accurately predict the weather a few hours ahead and a few miles away, so a forecast for 12 days ahead is virtually useless.

I don’t know what your circumstances are in terms of what factors you need to take into account to make your decision—big difference if you will be traveling a great distance just for the day or if you will be relatively near the Gunks anyway.

Presuming that you will be in the general area, say New York City —about 1.5 hours drive in light traffic, I’d plan to go there and hope the weather cooperates. Even if you are unlucky and the weather is poor, you can still take a hike along the Carriage Road below the Trapps and eyeball the cliffs and some of the boulders. In a light rain many of the easier routes are still very climbable and worthwhile.

It's still too early to tell how weather will be on 26th. Usually you will see relatively solid weekend weather forecast around Wednesday of the week. But even if weather forecast says 30-40% chance of rain, it's still tricky to tell sometimes. 

Thanks for the information. I'll be in Philadelphia the 23rd-25th and am planning to spend the night in New Paltz on the 25th to allow for chance of climbing the 26th. Hopefully the weather will cooperate, but if not we will try scouting from the Carriage Road as you suggested!

Just go. The gunks are worth it. Even if the forecast has a chance of showers, it won’t likely rain all day. And many routes can be climbed even if it’s a little wet out.

I would only avoid if it’s a block of days in a row with 100% rain and lots of it.

forecast a couple days out are usually good enough to make a judgement call. 

The NOAA crystal ball is not yet clear; the forecast discussion and prognostic discussions provide an indication of how certain the forecasters are of what is to come.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.18646025395483&lat=41.73764636044089#.WcAMtK2ZPBI

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

I’ve found 3 or 4 days out to be reliable for the gunks. Further out than that it gets gradually less reliable, and I wouldn’t trust a 2 week forecast at all. Use noaa.gov and the various windy.com forecast models to get the best idea.

The gunks do dry out relatively quick so if it rains the day before but is the sunny the day of, you’ll definitely be able to climb especially by the afternoon.

If it is rainy, the day won’t be a waste. As other people said go scout or boulder. There’s also good hiking. Go up the relatively less travelled kaaterskill high peak, and then bushwhack to the plane crash just below the mountain. The wreckage is still pretty intact. 

I'll be in Philadelphia the 23rd-25th and am planning to spend the night in New Paltz on the 25th to allow for chance of climbing the 26th. Hopefully the weather will cooperate, but if not we will try scouting from the Carriage Road as you suggested!

Elliott, I can't offer any useful forecast accuracy comments for New Paltz. But I can relate to your situation. I once found myself in a similar situation. I worked for a Philly firm and was in town for work. Had a one-day op for the Gunks and a buddy in Manhattan, so I picked him up on the way. We had some cheap hotel in New Paltz. There was weather on the way. As we drove up the afternoon before it became increasingly clear the forecast for a big front moving through in the wee hours of the morning, were spot on. It was going to rain hard. 

So we got to New Paltz, had dinner somewhere, and some beers. We debated what to do. It WAS fore sure going to rain the next day.  A decision was made when we left the restaurant - let's go up there RIGHT NOW. And that's what we did - got up there about 11 PM and walked down the Carriage Rd under a bright moon (that would soon be hidden). I'd never been to the Gunks before at that point and so I saw it under the moon light for the first time. We bouldered up and down, up and down. I remember marveling at how perfectly visible the rock was in the moonlight, except in the cracks which were all inky black and spooky to reach into.

We bouldered till about 2 am. Sufficiently sobered up, we lost the moonlight as the first clouds rolled in and we called it quits. Back at the hotel I woke up at 7 to the sound of pounding rain. It wasn't just a trickle, lol. We bailed from New Paltz, hiked Bear Mtn in the rain, did some stupid shenanigans hanging one handed from deer antlers on this weird statue sticking out the side of the mountain above railroad tracks, before I went back to Philly and flew home. 

That was a very long time ago. But it really stuck with me. Been back a few times since but that night under the moon, in advance of the storm - it was special and completely unplanned; magical.

May yours stick with you in similar fashion.

Cherokee Nunes wrote:

Elliott, I can't offer any useful forecast accuracy comments for New Paltz. But I can relate to your situation. I once found myself in a similar situation. I worked for a Philly firm and was in town for work. Had a one-day op for the Gunks and a buddy in Manhattan, so I picked him up on the way. We had some cheap hotel in New Paltz. There was weather on the way. As we drove up the afternoon before it became increasingly clear the forecast for a big front moving through in the wee hours of the morning, were spot on. It was going to rain hard. 

So we got to New Paltz, had dinner somewhere, and some beers. We debated what to do. It WAS fore sure going to rain the next day.  A decision was made when we left the restaurant - let's go up there RIGHT NOW. And that's what we did - got up there about 11 PM and walked down the Carriage Rd under a bright moon (that would soon be hidden). I'd never been to the Gunks before at that point and so I saw it under the moon light for the first time. We bouldered up and down, up and down. I remember marveling at how perfectly visible the rock was in the moonlight, except in the cracks which were all inky black and spooky to reach into.

We bouldered till about 2 am. Sufficiently sobered up, we lost the moonlight as the first clouds rolled in and we called it quits. Back at the hotel I woke up at 7 to the sound of pounding rain. It wasn't just a trickle, lol. We bailed from New Paltz, hiked Bear Mtn in the rain, did some stupid shenanigans hanging one handed from deer antlers on this weird statue sticking out the side of the mountain above railroad tracks, before I went back to Philly and flew home. 

That was a very long time ago. But it really stuck with me. Been back a few times since but that night under the moon, in advance of the storm - it was special and completely unplanned; magical.

May yours stick with you in similar fashion.

Thank you for the story and wishes!

Still a few days out but right now just about everywhere in the hudson valley to NYC is saying rain every day for the foreseeable future.  I would comment that the last few days it has also said rain every day and the rain has been so minimal and infrequent that I've been outside every day since sunday. 

Just go.  Worst case you can hike around the preserve.  It's gorgeous and only an hour and a half from the biggest city in the US.