Grand Teton Weather & Permit Strategy

Hi,

My dream for next summer is to climb the Grand Teton via full exum. Permits went on sale today.

I would much rather do the route with a clear afternoon forecast so that I can take my time and enjoy the route. It seems very difficult to summit before storms. The route is difficult to find in the dark, ~8 pitches plus scrambling, I rarely get a pitch done in <45mins, could make routefinding mistakes, and could get stuck behind parties that only do the Upper Exum.

What should my strategy be?

1. Book a $45 nonrefundable advance permit for July and hope that there's good weather. If bad weather, fall back to #2.
2. Wait for a good forecast, then get a walkup permit. Personally, I can drive up on a whim, but it's harder to ask partners to do the same. How reliable are the forecasts? Is there even such a thing as "clear weather, so we have all day", or are there often storms despite a clear forecast? After I snag the permit at 9am, is there anything short I could do that day, or is the day wasted?
3. Just try to climb fast and summit before storms. What's the deadline exactly? In CO it's clear until noon 99% of the time, but in CA it's more variable. How about WY? Whitney E Butt took me 5 hours from rope-up to summit. How does Exum compare? How soloable are the easy pitches (how easy is it to get off-route into harder terrain)?
4. Book advance permit for early Sept. In CO, there's a good window in early Sept where there are almost no thunderstorms but it's still warm enough. Is that true in WY also? How about late Aug? The experience would be less pleasant due to cold, long nights, smoke, less greenery, etc. And if that Sept permit doesn't work out, I would've missed my only chance for 2022.

Ellen S wrote:

I would much rather do the route with a clear afternoon forecast so that I can take my time and enjoy the route. It seems very difficult to summit before storms. 

Always a roll of the dice with the weather if visiting from afar. Walk-in permits are available one day ahead (be there an hour or two before they open). During the week, these are easier to obtain than on the weekends - come earlier for weekends. It really depends on where you want to camp. Rarely is the Morainal Camping Zone full during M-F.

The route is difficult to find in the dark, ~8 pitches plus scrambling, I rarely get a pitch done in <45mins, could make routefinding mistakes, and could get stuck behind parties that only do the Upper Exum.

In the dark, it can be somewhat challenging getting started on the Lower Exum if you didn't do the research. However this is an overplayed theme. Tons of info online to keep you on route. 

You won't get stuck behind other climbers on the Upper Exum. Too many variations on the Upper Exum especially if you can climb the Lower. It's a very easy route to begin with. You might have a slight delay in the Wind Tunnel's chockstones (it's a pinch point on the route), not so much if you solo the route, however.

What should my strategy be?

1. Book a $45 nonrefundable advance permit for July and hope that there's good weather. If bad weather, fall back to #2.
2. Wait for a good forecast, then get a walkup permit. Personally, I can drive up on a whim, but it's harder to ask partners to do the same. How reliable are the forecasts? Is there even such a thing as "clear weather, so we have all day", or are there often storms despite a clear forecast? After I snag the permit at 9am, is there anything short I could do that day, or am I doomed to waste a day?

I can't tell you what is best for your partner as far as flexibility in timing goes. I would try the walk-in permit if it was me. You can drive up so that makes more sense if you both have flexibility. But, you might lose your partner if he can't drop everything at the spur of the moment. So, if that is the biggest worry then get the permit and maybe add a day to your camping zone or transition to a new one. Camp in the National Forest first night, or whatever. September is a horrible time to bet on the weather - can be fantastic or an entire month of ice and snow storms. The guides shut down starting around the 2nd week but storms often shut them down for a day or two, or more before then.

Plenty of climbing on your first day!

1. Just try to climb fast and summit before storms. What's the deadline exactly? In CO it's clear until noon 99% of the time, but in CA it's more variable. How about WY? Whitney E Butt took me 5 hours from rope-up to summit. How does Exum compare? How soloable are the easy pitches (how easy is it to get off-route into harder terrain)?

Afternoon thunderstorms are hit and miss. We can have weeks go by with very little precip. Or not. Last year, forest fires were a bigger concern than afternoon storms. Most people are able to do the complete Exum before storms arrive. Usually, they come in after 3pm.

The Upper Exum should be very easy to solo if you were comfortable on the Lower in terms of difficulty. In terms of safety, it's still pretty solid rock with minimal natural hazards but there are no guarantees. Getting off route isn't an issue on the Upper - too much easy stuff everywhere. The Lower has options near the finish Gold/Black face that should be examined. That way you have an extra option if you need to pass someone, or vice versa.

None knows how long it will take you!!

1. Book advance permit for early Sept. In CO, there's a good window in early Sept where there are almost no thunderstorms but it's still warm enough. Is that true in WY also? How about late Aug? The experience would be less pleasant due to cold, long nights, smoke, less greenery, etc. 

August is a safer bet in terms of conditions. Again, thunderboomers aren't coming in like clockwork every afternoon. Tetons can be very cold at night and early morning at your camping zone in late August but, again, varies. Almost always warm enough for climbing when starting at the Lower but always exceptions in August.

1.  And if that Sept permit doesn't work out, I would've wasted my only chance for 2022.

How far away do you live - Boulder? I climbed in Sept., Oct. and November in 2021. Forest fires kept at it into September in 2021; but, less likely as you move toward fall.

1. Book advance permit for June. Bring snow gear. How feasible is that? Is June weather usually clear? Are campsites snowbound?

June is great if you like snow, and ice! The approach will be snowy with icy-hard snow in the am. Sloppier as day goes on. Usually, the second half of June is fine on the Exum Ridge but you will find snow in nooks and in gullies (often V-Pitch/Summit ridgeline, too). The Owen-Spalding is usually a mix of ice, snow and dry rock. The mountains & wildflowers are really pretty in June, and it's less crowded. If you can handle June, you can probably handle September conditions.

As far as a single day ascent goes:

This is done fairly often but it's a long day for most climbers. And it's very hard to estimate speed on the approach unless 7 miles and 4600 feet is something you have done before. Three in the morning may be too late if you want to avoid afternoon showers. I would suggest an earlier start if it is done in one day especially for someone who doesn't know the Tetons, whose fitness is uncertain, and with uncertain weather. Also, if you're driving up from Boulder then that means you will probably be here during the day. Any lack of sleep will slow you down. Get your rest. Climbing is more fun when not pressed for time or sleep.

Do it in a day with a 3am start. Get acclimated in CO prior. Since you’re flexible on your trip, avoid the strong winds up high if you can. 

thanks so much - didn't realize Sept was so unstable in the tetons, and that there are spells of good weather in July-Aug. Sounds like July-Aug is the best bet, either with an advance or walkup permit! 

Personally, I wouldn't do the Grand in a day. From past approaches & hikes I know my (slow) speed-per-elevation-gain and that predawn hiking absolutely sucks. The place is gorgeous, I don't want to miss it in the dark! & I'd like to do some other objectives from the same base camp as well.

Like others have suggested, I'd say wait for a weather window and go for a walk-in permit.  Climbing in the Grand can be unpleasant or dangerous in bad weather. You might also try going in June, when it's less crowded, snow covers the talus and scree, and thunderstorms are less common than later in the summer.

Ellen S wrote:

thanks so much - didn't realize Sept was so unstable in the tetons, and that there are spells of good weather in July-Aug. Sounds like July-Aug is the best bet, either with an advance or walkup permit! 

Personally, I wouldn't do the Grand in a day. From past approaches & hikes I know my (slow) speed-per-elevation-gain and that predawn hiking absolutely sucks. The place is gorgeous, I don't want to miss it in the dark! & I'd like to do some other objectives from the same base camp as well.

It's not so much that Sept is unstable...but that any precip tends to hang around in the form of ice and snow on the route.  It just doesn't dry out that fast in the fall.  Days are short and the nights can be cold.  Early starts can be cold.

I think your best plan is to find your reasonable weather window and get a walk up permit.  Week days better.  I'd shoot for mid to late July through late August.  Use Woody's weather for a good three day forecast.

You're likely not to get many nights at one "basecamp"...so...additional objectives might be best to consider from the valley floor.  I think you can only get two nights in any "zone".  Get a spot for two nights at the saddle, start your trip early and scout the approach to the base of the route.  Start before dawn, climb it the next day on your good weather day.  Come out the following day and if you have the juice, hit a day climb on the hike down.

And...have fun!

Brian in SLC wrote:

Woody's weather for a good three day forecast. 

I know you know this but the OP might not: no forecast is good for 3 days in the Tetons unless we get a very stable and large high pressure system parked overhead, or a super big storm system. In which case, a forecast from anyone probably has the same value. 

I like Woody and his website www.mountainweather.com (Jim Woodmencey is a local JH weatherman and former climbing ranger); but, there is zero evidence that Woody's forecast is better than the National Weather Service's, especially three days out. And all of his data is mined from the NWS. 

The OP should be looking for a nice weather window over several days if she wants to maximize safety and success. And hopefully not right after a wet and very-cold cold front has passed.

Woody's website is certainly resourceful for those who don't make a living navigating the NWS sites. It could be better if it was regularly maintained. 

Ellen S wrote:

Personally, I wouldn't do the Grand in a day. From past approaches & hikes I know my (slow) speed-per-elevation-gain and that predawn hiking absolutely sucks. The place is gorgeous, I don't want to miss it in the dark! & I'd like to do some other objectives from the same base camp as well.

Start at 3 AM in July and the sun will be up soon enough that you won't be hiking in the dark for long, and you'll only miss the lower part of the approach. You've got until July to train, maybe you can improve your speed. Setting up a base camp and doing other objectives would be great, but what are the odds of getting a permit to stay up in Garnet Canyon or higher for more than one or two nights? 

Also worth noting is that carrying backpacking & climbing gear, plus food/clothes etc., up Garnet Canyon all the way to Lower Saddle kinda sucks, especially in the gravel and talus past the caves, & in the heat of the day. During the heat wave this past summer I saw many people dreading this hike with all the gear. If one could score the Meadows for 2 nights, I think that spot would be ideal to knock out Irene’s arete, South or something on the south side of Middle. The 3am start allows one to travel light and make good time in the cooler early morning hours.

My 2c is if you have your heart set on camping on the Saddle, get the advanced permit and add a few days to it for weather contingency.  Early to mid Aug is best - higher likelyhood of snow cover much before, much colder after.  For various reasons in how the system works, you’re unlikely to get Saddle permits any other way.  

Otherwise - suck it and do a day trip on Owen Spaulding.  I’ve seen old frail people who took 6 hours to get to the Lower Saddle do it - just took a long time.

IMO - it’s irresponsible to suggest Upper Exum is an ez solo for the uninitiated - it’s not - it’s dangerous unless you have a lot of experience doing that sort of thing.  The Friction Pitch and its bypass are both real, and so is getting off route, which will likely happen on your first trip. 

I'm not sure if the Park still allows camping in Dartmouth Basin, but if you could it'd solve your permit issue for high season. 

James W wrote:

My 2c is if you have your heart set on camping on the Saddle, get the advanced permit and add a few days to it for weather contingency.  Early to mid Aug is best - higher likelyhood of snow cover much before, much colder after.  For various reasons in how the system works, you’re unlikely to get Saddle permits any other way.  

Otherwise - suck it and do a day trip on Owen Spaulding.  I’ve seen old frail people who took 6 hours to get to the Lower Saddle do it - just took a long time.

IMO - it’s irresponsible to suggest Upper Exum is an ez solo for the uninitiated - it’s not - it’s dangerous unless you have a lot of experience doing that sort of thing.  The Friction Pitch and its bypass are both real, and so is getting off route, which will likely happen on your first trip. 

That is true for weaker climbers.

The Upper Exum should be very easy to solo if the OP was comfortable on the Lower in terms of difficulty. The OP has climbed 5.10. The first two people to go up the Exum onsight soloed it. They had far far less experience and skill than the OP. Glenn Exum was in way over his head. Paul Petzoldt not so much. It was quite some time before either one got around to tackling the Lower.

Everything about climbing is dangerous including the approach but overstating the difficulty for someone who can climb the Lower with ease is a disservice to those who wish to move faster and might need to plan on doing that. The OP isn't a newbie. It is not uncommon for parties to come off of the Lower and solo most, if not all, of the Upper. She should know that is a viable option and that the rock is some of the best for soloing. You can see some pictures of runners on the Upper Exum here.

As for the Friction Pitch, it is one of the safest places on the entire Grand if you look at accident stats (unrelated to natural hazards like lightning). And getting off route is unlikely to be an issue for a 5.10 climber. I think even newbie Glenn beat Paul the first time Glenn went to the summit and Paul went via the OS. And the route finding is covered on MP in good-enough detail.

Teton Climber wrote:

That is true for weaker climbers.

The Upper Exum should be very easy to solo if the OP was comfortable on the Lower in terms of difficulty. The OP has climbed 5.10. The first two people to go up the Exum onsight soloed it. They had far far less experience and skill than the OP. Glenn Exum was in way over his head. Paul Petzoldt not so much. It was quite some time before either one got around to tackling the Lower.

Everything about climbing is dangerous including the approach but overstating the difficulty for someone who can climb the Lower with ease is a disservice to those who wish to move faster and might need to plan on doing that. The OP isn't a newbie. It is not uncommon for parties to come off of the Lower and solo most, if not all, of the Upper. She should know that is a viable option and that the rock is some of the best for soloing. You can see some of my pictures of runners on the Upper Exum here.

As for the Friction Pitch, it is one of the safest places on the entire Grand if you look at accident stats (unrelated to natural hazards like lightning). And getting off route is unlikely to be an issue for a 5.10 climber. I think even newbie Glenn beat Paul the first time Glenn went to the summit and Paul went via the OS. And the route finding is covered on MP in good-enough detail.

Lol i have toproped 5.10 sport but also fallen on 5.4 due to being offroute. Even if someone onsights 5.10 sport, that doesn't mean they're good at alpine routefinding. I'm only a 5.7 climber because that's what trad grade i can usually lead. So then 5.5 often doesnt even feel soloable. Routefinding is just freaking hard, except in lucky cases where the route follows a natural line. Maybe it ends up being easy, but can't count on that. Was thinking of simul-leading the upper. Is it reasonable to get the route done between first light and noon if you dont solo and get lost a couple times?

mark felber wrote:

 what are the odds of getting a permit to stay up in Garnet Canyon or higher for more than one or two nights? 

I thought the walkup permits were first come first served? So if you're first in line you should get it?

Ellen S wrote:

 I'm only a 5.7 climber because that's what trad grade i can usually lead. So then 5.5 often doesnt even feel soloable

That is why I say it is possible to solo "IF the OP was comfortable on the Lower in terms of difficulty."

Most of the route is unsustained 5.4 and, when dry, there are variations to bypass many features that are no more difficult. 

 Routefinding is just freaking hard, except in lucky cases where the route follows a natural line. Maybe it ends up being easy, but can't count on that. Was thinking of simul-leading the upper. Is it reasonable to get the route done between first light and noon if you dont solo and get lost a couple times?

Simul is common on the Upper. 

None knows how fast you will move nor is it possible for you to estimate since you have not been on it. Some slower parties are on the ridge for much of the day. They have the option of bailing at, or just above, the start of the Upper if they are behind schedule. It is certainly possible to be on the summit by noon. Happens regularly but not for everyone.

Mr. Carson posting above probably has detailed knowledge about the average time guided parties took to complete the ridge. That should be your high bar for speed based upon your statements here.

Route finding is just following the ridge. You have, literally, a bazillion videos, trip reports, and other beta online. And the route is usually busy during the summer. Unprepared people do get off route (usually bypassing the Friction Pitch and V-Pitch), but that rarely causes any issues since the bypasses are no more difficult.

As always, anything can happen in the alpine but most climbers are staying out of trouble on the Exum. This is not K2.

Good luck!

EDIT: Camping at the saddle is nice, at times a wind-blown hell, but the moraines are also a fine choice as they only add 30 minutes or so to your start. It is easy to call the rangers and confirm availability and quantity of permits at the saddle before your arrival. The park sets aside a higher percentage of permits for walk-ins but the daily percentage can change at any one camping zone. 

Ellen S wrote:

I'm only a 5.7 climber because that's what trad grade i can usually lead. So then 5.5 often doesnt even feel soloable. Routefinding is just freaking hard, except in lucky cases where the route follows a natural line. Maybe it ends up being easy, but can't count on that. Was thinking of simul-leading the upper. Is it reasonable to get the route done between first light and noon if you dont solo and get lost a couple times?

My advice, based on what you said above, is to just plan on the upper Exum.  Or, work on your climbing so you're more confident at quickly being able to dispense a 5.7 pitch in the mountains.

Exum is a great route.  When you do the lower, you miss the most memorable part of the Exum...so...just do the Exum then come back when you've got some mileage and do the lower.

Baby steps is sometimes good for breaking into alpine climbing...

Cheers!

Brian in SLC wrote:

My advice, based on what you said above, is to just plan on the upper Exum.  

I would guestimate 90% of climbers on the OS ended up there after planning to climb Lower Exum then free solo the Upper in no time flat.

The Owen-Spalding route is often backed up, offers limited climbing (300ft?), it's colder & in the shade and isn't going to be a fun challenge for someone who expresses a preference for the Lower Exum, and has a history of climbing 5.6, 5.7, and 5.8 trad.

Having the OP drop the Exum in favor of the OS would be like driving from Boulder to go to Jackson's McDonald's. Don't do that.

Ellen S wrote:

Lol i have toproped 5.10 sport but also fallen on 5.4 due to being offroute. Even if someone onsights 5.10 sport, that doesn't mean they're good at alpine routefinding. I'm only a 5.7 climber because that's what trad grade i can usually lead. So then 5.5 often doesnt even feel soloable. Routefinding is just freaking hard, except in lucky cases where the route follows a natural line. Maybe it ends up being easy, but can't count on that. Was thinking of simul-leading the upper. Is it reasonable to get the route done between first light and noon if you dont solo and get lost a couple times?

Hire a guide then, it would greatly increase your chances of success. 

The E Buttress of Whitney to the Upper Exum are quite comparable. Though Whitney is technically harder, the routes are similar in that they are mostly quite easy and have a similar amount of technical climbing.  I haven’t done the Lower Exum, but I suspect doing the entire thing - both Lower and Upper - is a much more substantial climb, longer and harder, than Whitney. Given that, I think your best plan would be to do the Upper Exum. It’s a very good route, and the Grand is a wonderful mountaineering peak, and if all goes well, come back and do the whole thing next year.

You’re getting some good advice from people with much more Teton experience than me. Don’t try to do it in a day, but if you have the fitness, camp at one of the lower camps, like the meadow. I’ve never camped at the Lower Saddle, but it looks bleak. I think you’ll sleep better lower. 

I did E Butt of Whitney too long ago to recall.  Around Boulder, I would say the Upper is most similar to the Direct E Face on the 1st, harder than the 3rd.  The Lower is harder than Bastille, similar to Ruper, easier than Yellow Spur.  The hike to the Saddle is comparable to getting to the base of the N Face or Keyhole proper on Long’s.  A trip up Kiener’s in June would be the closest overall experience you might find around here to the OS or the Upper, also in June.  Stack your round trip times on those routes, I don’t think you’d be too far off.  

While everyone makes fun of the OS, the fact remains that it is crowded with climbers who did not originally plan for it. After the appoach and a cold predawn start - plans often change.  Show up prepared and you can climb harder routes - if not, the OS is a pretty reasonable consolation, and it’s your descent route so you want to know it regardless.

The permits are indeed first come first serve, but those on multi-day trips can take all of the permits - it’s indeed possible you’d wait in line and there would be no permits available for your desired bivy.  Calling or stopping in the day before is probably good advice.  I don’t actually like the ranger station wait in line thing - waste of a day, rather be climbing.