How hard could the average dedicated climber climb.

Given the theoretical dedicated climber (climbs 3+ times per week in gym, follows basic training structure), what do you think they could climb after 5 years in the sport. 10 years. Max?

Such a person should be able to climb 99% of the routes in their gym, after 5 years of 3-days a week in said gym. That's pretty much it.

Kole H wrote:

Given the theoretical dedicated climber (climbs 3+ times per week in gym, follows basic training structure), what do you think they could climb after 5 years in the sport. 10 years. Max?

You need to send Nick $10 for asking this question.

Average dedicated climber? 5.13b sport, 5.12b/c (well protected/straight forward) trad, and V8 on the boulders, regardless of style. (Except for slab. Slab is stupid, and hard, and scary)

Frank Stein wrote:

Average dedicated climber? 5.13b sport

perhaps we have a different definition of "average dedicated climber," but the % of people who consistently tick .13b is low....

Most people are climbing 5.12c sport and 5.11+ trad by the end of their first year. 

If you can’t, maybe consider a different sport to which you are better suited?

Mark E Dixon wrote:

Most people are climbing 5.12c sport and 5.11+ trad by the end of their first year. 

If you can’t, maybe consider a different sport to which you are better suited?

data disagrees with you. from the article:

 "The average 18-year-old in the data climbed 5.12d to 5.13a, as did the average 50-year-old, as did almost every age in between! In other words, whether they were just starting college or breaching the half-century mark, on average they were climbing 5.12d to 5.13a"

this seems to suggest that most people are not climbing 5.12c after their first year.

https://rockandice.com/inside-beta/over-the-hill-or-still-ascending-an-analysis-of-climbing-performance-and-age/

If I read that “study” correctly, the average climber actually climbs 12d/13a for his/her entire career. 

Thanks for correcting my error! 

If you aren’t climbing 12d at the end of your first year, it’s time to find another sport. 

Mark E Dixon wrote:

If I read that “study” correctly, the average climber actually climbs 12d/13a for his/her entire career. 

 exactly, which indicates NOT after their first year. the population of data likely includes climbers with 10+ years of climbing, hence the term average. so your initial statement seems unlikely (that most people are climbing .12 after their first year.). 

If you aren’t climbing 12d at the end of your first year, it’s time to find another sport.

personally, i'd rather be a 5.10 climber with a well rounded set of skills than a 5.12 gym rat who cant rig an uphaul...but hey, i guess i should find another sport :)

Mark E Dixon wrote:

If I read that “study” correctly, the average climber actually climbs 12d/13a for his/her entire career. 

There’s your answer. Science!

Training doesn't really matter so much... it's more about being able to keep a confident mind and not burning out.

curt86iroc wrote:

 exactly, which indicates NOT after their first year. the population of data likely includes climbers with 10+ years of climbing, hence the term average. so your initial statement seems unlikely (that most people are climbing .12 after their first year.). 

Now who’s arguing against the science?

I’m just trying to help people out, so they can make good decisions and get a decent price for their lightly used high-end Sportiva shoes, Arcteryx harnesses and BD chalkbags 

Anecdotally speaking, from my circle of friends, redpoint V8, sport 12+, and trad 11+/12- outdoors. We do try to get out at least once a week though.

I also think of dedicated as someone who is highly motivated to reach their potential, willing to try hard, and who takes rest and nutrition as important components to their climbing

Mark E Dixon wrote:

If I read that “study” correctly, the average climber actually climbs 12d/13a for his/her entire career. 

Thanks for correcting my error! 

If you aren’t climbing 12d at the end of your first year, it’s time to find another sport. 

Hmmm. I started climbing in 1977. I was totally psyched to follow a 5.9 trad pitch on-sight this fall. 

curt86iroc wrote:

data disagrees with you. from the article:

 "The average 18-year-old in the data climbed 5.12d to 5.13a, as did the average 50-year-old, as did almost every age in between! In other words, whether they were just starting college or breaching the half-century mark, on average they were climbing 5.12d to 5.13a"

this seems to suggest that most people are not climbing 5.12c after their first year.

https://rockandice.com/inside-beta/over-the-hill-or-still-ascending-an-analysis-of-climbing-performance-and-age/

People in their first year of climbing weren't even included in the data. One of the requisites was having been in the database (and therefore having climbed) for over 5 years. ANd of course I'm asking for myself, who else do I have to ask for.

Frank Stein wrote:

Average dedicated climber? 5.13b sport, 5.12b/c (well protected/straight forward) trad, and V8 on the boulders, regardless of style. (Except for slab. Slab is stupid, and hard, and scary)

Wide is fine?

Are we talking about gym grades?

Damn, I am glad I am not dedicated.  I would surely hurt myself.

@Kole-

Seriously, some dedicated climbers will be climbing 10a after a year, some 13a. 

Where you will lie on this spectrum is beyond the knowledge of internet strangers. 

If you are on a team, ask your coach. 

If not, and you can afford it, hire a coach for a couple of sessions and get their informed opinion. Plus get some advice on how to reach your goal. 

At age 18, if you want to get stronger and better fastest, IMO stick to bouldering for a couple of years. 

If you want to be happiest, do what you like and as much of it as you want, and stop worrying about the grades.

I would like to amplify curt86’s implication above.

Trad climbing is different. The mechanics aren’t hard. It isn’t brain surgery. 

But developing adequate judgment about the capabilities of yourself and the gear to be competent takes more than a year, IMO

Mark E Dixon wrote:

Most people are climbing 5.12c sport and 5.11+ trad by the end of their first year. 

If you can’t, maybe consider a different sport to which you are better suited?

100% you are trolling

This question was clearly asked by a youngster who doesn't understand the realities of aging.  : )

We're not all 18.

Survivorship bias makes it difficult to draw conclusions about amateur athletics. Your sample is biased towards people who had potential and long-term enthusiasm and success.

Progression to elite amateur is less about inherent potential and more about dedication over time. We don't see the people who drop out because they get injured, catch colds more often, or find better things to do with their time (family, career), etc. Even that statement is questionable because there could be a large number of people with unfavorable genetics who drop out early on. So, yeah, probably most people have the genetics to climb 5.13 or be a Category 1 bike racer if they put in the time, but all our answers are very speculative.