Is 5.16a possible?

I read recently that Adam Ondra has established another 5.15c. It makes me wonder how much longer it will take before 5.15d is established. What is possible after that? What would 5.16a be like? Is it even possible or are we about to reach our maximum grade difficulty for climbing on planet Earth?

A bunch of v16's stacked on top of each other with shitty rests. As long as harder bouldering climbs can be established, I see no reason to think that lead climbing has reached its limit.

No. It will never ever happen. It is proven to be impossible by science.

From his Adventurer of the Year interview, this quote from Adam stood out pretty clearly to me:

I think sport climbing is still a relatively young sport. Not so many people are really focused into really structured and sophisticated training, and I think that there’s still a lot of room to improve. I can imagine, easily, routes 9c [5.15d], 10a [5.16]. I can describe them, and I think I have even bolted some of the climbs that could have such a grade. I can imagine climbing them; I just don’t have the power now. I might in a couple of years, I will see. I’m very excited about it.

Ondra is only about 20 years old. He will climb 5.16. Same debate happened around 5.15a

i predict it will happen in 2020

It happened in the gunks years ago.

nicelegs wrote:It happened in the gunks years ago.

...but it got sandbagged at 5.9+, right?

nicelegs wrote:It happened in the gunks years ago.

But the single piton placed offended the trad sensibilities of an Eldo climber and he chopped it.

You know the video of Ondra sending that thing in Norway? Watch him warm up. His ape index has to be around +10. Now, take his DNA and combine it with with say, a female Olympian of some sort; then initiate early childhood training and you'll get a 5.18-20 climber

Grading has changed over the years. It used to be that if the hardest move on a climb was 5.14a, then the route was 5.14a. Length, sustainedness, rests, etc, didn't factor into the equation. Seems kind of dumb now, but that is the way the YDS system was developed.

Moreover, it wasn't developed for sport climbing... obviously... since we all know what kind of climbing they were doing in Yosemite back in the day.

The French system not only takes into account the hardest move, but also how many of them there are, how many other hard moves there are, how they link together, if there are any rests in between, etc. It provides a more realistic and accurate description of the route and how hard it will be to redpoint.

If we continued to grade routes based on the YDS system, we'd eventually hit a point where a harder move could not be done. There comes a point where gravity just wins. It might take an entire generation to advance one letter grade.

But since we use the French system for the worlds hardest sport climbs, the routes can get harder based on things other than the single hardest move. So, like Alex said, loads of v16s, one after another, with no rests. Single hardest sequence might still be v16, but if you have to do a lot of them, it's going to get a harder grade.

Ondra is 20. He has another 5-10 years before he peaks, maybe more. That's assuming he stays healthy and doesn't burn out. If he can do that, I think we'll see him take climbing to the NEXT next level by the end of the decade. And instead of it being a one to one hand over of the torch (Sharma to Ondra) it will be Ondra handing the torch to 5 young climbers who will take climbing to the NEXT NEXT next level.

Like Ondra says, it's only the beginning of sophisticated and regimented training.

Darren Mabe wrote:i predict it will happen in 2020

I would guess a little later than 2020.
5.15a came in 2001
5.15b in 2008
5.15c in 2012
5.15d will come
then so will 5.16a (9c+)

Brent Larsen wrote:What would 5.16a be like? Is it even possible or are we about to reach our maximum grade difficulty for climbing on planet Earth?

When will the first 10 be established? That is 5.16b. Will any of us see that day? If you think 5.16 sounds far off, imagine what Euro climbers think of a 10a (5.16b). Imagine the climb and climber that will be first to propose a 10a.

Actually Alexander Huber repointed Open Air in 1996, which Ondra graded 5.15a.

Bernabé Fernández climbed Chilam Balam in 2003, which Ondra graded at 5.15b.

Sharma gets credit, but really was late on both grades.

another good discussion: peripheralscrutiny.blogspot…

Fred Rouhling - Akira 1995 5.15b? (unrepeated). talk about no credit

Tony Hawk wrote:Actually Alexander Huber repointed Open Air in 1996, which Ondra graded 5.15a. Bernabé Fernández climbed Chilam Balam in 2003, which Ondra graded at 5.15b. Sharma gets credit, but really was late on both grades.

I'm pretty sure Alex did not propose 5.15a and it went unrepeated for many years. Sharma has the first proposed and confirmed 5.15a. Sharma's was known first to the climbing world and that is why it is credited that way.

Now I get the stories a little crossed and mixed up on Chilam Balam and Akira. I know both had a lot of controversy surrounding the FA's. I'm pretty sure one of those two routes (I think Chilam Balam) was chipped into existence and top climbers were dismissing it. And the other route(I think Akira), all the top climbers were doubting that Fred could even be capable of such a climb, and thus dismissed it too. I may have the two routes history backwards, but both were not recognized as valid accents by the climbing community at the time they were first reportedly sent.
Lots of articles and LOTS of controversy for these two climbs on the internet.

Red wrote: I would guess a little later than 2020. 5.15a came in 2001 5.15b in 2008 5.15c in 2012 5.15d will come then so will 5.16a (9c+) When will the first 10 be established? That is 5.16b. Will any of us see that day? If you think 5.16 sounds far off, imagine what Euro climbers think of a 10a (5.16b). Imagine the climb and climber that will be first to propose a 10a.

Once the French scale has a 10a, then things will really get confusing between the two scales. "Do you mean a French 10a or an American 10a". Now that is a world of difference.

As to the OP: It is pretty easy to imagine what 5.16a might entail...just stack several V13-V15 boulder problems together, with poor rests, and there you go. Even 5.17a or beyond is within imagination...just more V15 boulder problems over a long pitch, no rests. However, what is the human limit? We haven't reached it yet; there are plenty of advances left to be made in climbing training, plus the expansion of the sport will access a greater pool of genetic freaks.

There is going to be a limit eventually, though, to human ability. A corollary is the mile run. It is easy to imagine what a 3-minute mile would entail...just run faster for 3 minutes. If Usain Bolt could keep up his 100 meter pace for a mile, that record would be be under 3 minutes. However, most runners would postulate that this record will not be achieved by what we currently see as the human species. The same sort of limit must exist in climbing...but where is it? 5.16a will probably be done within a decade or two; the limit is likely higher than that, but how much higher? Can a human ever do a 5.16c? 5.17a?

[quote from JCM, since quote tag seems to be getting discarded for some reason...]

Grading has changed over the years. It used to be that if the hardest move on a climb was 5.14a, then the route was 5.14a. Length, sustainedness, rests, etc, didn't factor into the equation. Seems kind of dumb now, but that is the way the YDS system was developed.
...
If we continued to grade routes based on the YDS system, we'd eventually hit a point where a harder move could not be done. There comes a point where gravity just wins.
[end quote]

Historically, yes, that is how YDS was defined. In current usage, that is not how it is used. For at least the last decade, YDS has been used to rate the overall difficulty of climbing the route, just as the French system is.

British technical grade, though, is still defined that way, and used that way. But it generally goes with an adjectival grade to cover-off overall difficulty -- though they do bring in gear, exposure, etc as well.

5.16 is a YDS grade.... I am sure someday someone will pull it off...

It's difficult to match the French system vs the YDS...

YDS filters out all the subjective BS, like how tired you are...

The YDS is the hardest "move" .... ONLY.

I think that the hardest move gets done on a boulder, first, then a climb.

I am so old that when I started climbing the local guidebook author (C. Wilts) proclaimed that 5.11 is humanly impossible!!!!

And at that time there were climbs that are now graded 5.11+ that had been done.

It takes a consensus of climbers to solidify a new grade level

Anything is possible.

Guy Keesee wrote:5.16 is a YDS grade.... I am sure someday someone will pull it off... It's difficult to match the French system vs the YDS... YDS filters out all the subjective BS, like how tired you are... The YDS is the hardest "move" .... ONLY.

Your statements may have been true in 1960, or whenever you started climbing, but the YDS has evolved since then, even if you have not. See this thread for details:

mountainproject.com/v/what-…