Tioga Road 2025 Opening Date Prediction

Based on a linear regression between the snow levels in Tuolumne meadows on April 1st (traditionally considered the date of peak snowpack in the Sierra Nevada) and historical opening dates, my prediction for the Tioga Road opening date this year is May 24th, 2025. This happens to be the Saturday before Memorial Day.

In contrast to last year, I used the snow water equivalent from the TUM snow course as the predictor, rather than the basin-wide average for the Tuolumne River basin. The TUM snow course is very close to Tioga road, whereas most of the other snow courses are in other parts of the watershed. I also only used the most recent 30 years of data (1995-present), and excluded 2020 as it was a clear outlier (presumably due to the pandemic altering park policies).

See you guys up there!

There is no money or people to run the snow plows so the NPS is going to let the road melt out fully before opening it.

memorial day weekend

Allen Sanderson wrote:

There is no money or people to run the snow plows so the NPS is going to let the road melt out fully before opening it.

With the popularity of Yosemite, I would guess that the cost of lost days is too great not to open as soon as possible.

Christopher Antimie wrote:

With the popularity of Yosemite, I would guess that the cost of lost days is too great not to open as soon as possible.

There is little concessionaire presence in Tuolumne, and as such I think little financial incentive compared to the valley. Thankfully.

Allen Sanderson wrote:

There is no money or people to run the snow plows so the NPS is going to let the road melt out fully before opening it.

Is the clearance responsibility for SR-120 under the jurisdiction of the NPS? If so, then maybe there’s a 2% chance the above is slightly accurate. If it’s CalTrans, then most any federal kerfuffles will be irrelevant to clearance operations and/or budget allocations (which were probably made a year ago).

I believe that CalTrans maintains the road up to the park entrance and NPS manages the road inside the park. NPS insists on having rangers available to patrol the road and man the ticket booth at the pass, which slows down the opening of the road. That's why it's fairly common to have the road open from Lee Vining to the park entrance for a few days before the gate at the park entrance is opened.

Obviously a 10% tariff on all non-merican stuff passing thru on Tioga will fund the snow plows. I know because Èlon told me so, and he ran the numbers himself, didn't even use a smart car.

Opens to bicycles for a few days before autos . It is a very quiet and scenic ride with no worries about  vehicles. I've  ridden from  LeeVining to Tenaya Lake  several times .

https://tiogawatch.wordpress.com/

Gerald Adams wrote:

Opens to bicycles for a few days before autos . It is a very quiet and scenic ride with no worries about  vehicles. I've  ridden from  LeeVining to Tenaya Lake  several times .

That sounds awesome ! Especially the downhill. Did you bike pack/tour or day trip ? I’ve been thinking of making that climb for a while . 

mark felber wrote:

I believe that CalTrans maintains the road up to the park entrance and NPS manages the road inside the park. NPS insists on having rangers available to patrol the road and man the ticket booth at the pass, which slows down the opening of the road. That's why it's fairly common to have the road open from Lee Vining to the park entrance for a few days before the gate at the park entrance is opened.

This is part of the issue. The other part is plowing around Olmstead point. A plow driver (or some other kind of roadworker)  was killed by an Avalanche there about 30 years ago. That's the old story, anyway.

Gerald Adams wrote:

Opens to bicycles for a few days before autos . It is a very quiet and scenic ride with no worries about  vehicles. I've  ridden from  LeeVining to Tenaya Lake  several times .

I used to ride from Mammoth to the top of Tioga Pass and back during that time window. I would hoist my bike over the gate at the bottom of the pass , ride to the entrance station and turn around for a thriller descent on my own private road. great fun as long as I remembered to stop for the gate at the bottom.

Norm, I am still waiting for the prize you promised last year to the person whose suggested date came the closest to the actual opening day. If you remember, I actually guessed the day exactly. So this year, when I win, I expect to receive double prize money. 

My guess is the 1st of June 2025.

My Sacramento Bike Club has had Mammoth Lake trips and would ride to Tioga Pass  on day trips .Met people several times who were cycling all the way to Yosemite Valley  and other East side destinations . Rock Creek is another great day trip .