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Weather and RMNP alpine.

Original Post
Tony T · · Denver, CO · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 45

So, it's going on four weeks of planning to climb Spearhead and having the weather forecast go from decent to terrible. I know it's the monsoon, but something about it seems different this year.

My question is, at which point do you just go for it? I mean, 20% chance of afternoon t-storms is pretty standard for the summer here. However, when it is 50%, do you still go? What about above that? What if it's a slight chance before noon?

I'm getting pretty tired of calling it off, but I'm also not the biggest fan of being up above tree-line when a thunderstorm rolls in. It's happened once, and that was enough for me.

Jim Amidon · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2001 · Points: 850

A forecasts % chance of thundershowers is based on past years statistics then added to the current forecast and brought together on a probability.

No forecast is 100% and the only way to learn the unique weather patterns of RMNP is to go for it.

Know your approach times to the base, have your climb times worked out per pitch to the top of your objective.

Be off of any high peak by 11a-12p.......

You may hike out in the rain.......

But you'll have completed your objective and learned a lil more about the weather in RMNP....

Oh yea and always carry bail gear.......

Tony T · · Denver, CO · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 45

I didn't know that bit about it being a stats game.

I've climbed a fair amount in the alpine (the Diamond, Sharkstooth, etc.) but I just can't make heads or tails of this past few weeks of forecasts. I think instead of Spearhead we're going for Hallet's to beo on the safeside. Unless someone here can convince me that the 6 mile approach to Spearhead is a breeze.

Dan.Schultz · · SW Colorado · Joined Oct 2012 · Points: 5

Maybe approach the night before? Or hide everything at the base and blast in?

Kevin Craig · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Mar 2002 · Points: 325

The saying goes "you never know unless you go." That said, every few years we get an August like this; sometimes a couple years in a row. Bivying the night before is your best bet and just be off before noon. But yeah, 50% chance is pretty likely for t'storms in the alpine.

Tony T · · Denver, CO · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 45

Yeah, we're realizing that a bivy would be best, but we're climbing Tuesday so it feels a little too last minute. I think we're just going for a safer alternative and heading up Hallett instead.

I know we need the moisture, but do we *need* the lightning!?! Come on! I just hope this translates into a great powder year. =p

Tony T · · Denver, CO · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 45
Kevin Craig wrote:The saying goes "you never know unless you go."
That is the saying that has me hemming and hawing. Two summers ago, my partner and I were planning to climb in Eldo. The weather looked terrible, and the canyon looked socked in and wet. We got there at a leisurely 9am and discovered not only was the canyon dry, it was completely devoid of other people. We hopped on the Bastille and had the place to ourselves. It was the only time I've seen it that empty. So, that is what has me second guessing my better judgment.
AnthonyM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Mar 2009 · Points: 30

We had bad weather forecasts (50 or 60% chance of precipitation) and decided to feel it out (we had planned a few climbs in RMNP). We got there and made a comfy bivy in the Sky Pond area. To our surprise it was the most perfect two days I have ever seen... Then all hell broke loose (rain, hail, etc.) on the third day. It was worth it.

I agree, you never know until you go... plus you can hit Monastery on the way back (a decent amount of weather misses that area because of the rain shadow and elevation).

Cheers.

justin dubois · · Estes Park · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 525

The stormy, marginal days may prove to be the most memorable.

Scott McMahon · · Boulder, CO · Joined Feb 2006 · Points: 1,425
Tony T. wrote:I know we need the moisture, but do we *need* the lightning!?! Come on! I just hope this translates into a great powder year. =p
haha this has been my FB post every other day for the past month. I feel your frustration. I was checking the weather report on Longs up until midnight this past Saturday.

Just ended up watching Nat-Geo programming till 3 am.
Erik W · · Santa Cruz, CA · Joined Mar 2007 · Points: 280

The second you mentioned Spearhead and weather my body went Pavlov and started shaking. Bad memories. A couple years back my partner and I went up to do the Sickle with a forecast of 30% showers in late afternoon. No biggie, we'd be done by then. We hiked in the night before and bivied under a rock, thereby giving us the greatest chance of an early start the next morning, with lots of energy from all those zzzz's.

From a pitch below the roof:

Spearhead1.

....and just 2 pitches later:

Spearhead2.

We didn't really stress too much when the hail started while we were on the crux roof pitch. No problem climbing in hail, and it wasn't cold at all. But then the hail turned to rain as my partner started the slab traverse.

And then the lighting started. Everywhere. It literally would be a strike, then the static would build again, the gear buzzing again, battery taste in the air, fingers arcing to the rock again, then boom another strike discharge and it would start all over. Every 15-20sec, for what had to have been half an hour.

My partner finished the pitch soaked, but above most of the lighting. He stayed below the ridgeline, abandoned all his metal gear, wedged himself in some rocks and started to belay me across the running sheet of water that had become the traversing slab. I, meanwhile, was in the thick of the lightning. He said afterwards that looking down it looked like a giant fireworks show all around me as I seconded the pitch, and that honestly he didn't want to be connected to me via a soaking wet rope as he felt like Benjamin Franklin with a kite.

Anyway, we made it out ok. Both of us lost feeling in our fingertips for about a month as a result of all the constant arc'ing between our fingers and the rock. How we didn't take a direct hit is beyond me, I'm still boggled by it. Whatever the case, I've never been so scared shitless in my entire life.

So, be careful up there with those weather stats. Our storm wasn't anywhere close to the afternoon as predicted, and while there were a couple clouds over Estes as we were midway up the climb, above us it was total blue (as seen in the pic). That storm went from Nothing to ass-whoopin' Something in under 2 pitches time.

Kenan · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Apr 2010 · Points: 1,237
Erik W wrote:The second you mentioned Spearhead and weather my body went Pavlov and started shaking. Bad memories. A couple years back my partner and I went up to do the Sickle with a forecast of 30% showers in late afternoon. No biggie, we'd be done by then. We hiked in the night before and bivied under a rock, thereby giving us the greatest chance of an early start the next morning, with lots of energy from all those zzzz's. From a pitch below the roof: ....and just 2 pitches later: We didn't really stress too much when the hail started while we were on the crux roof pitch. No problem climbing in hail, and it wasn't cold at all. But then the hail turned to rain as my partner started the slab traverse. And then the lighting started. Everywhere. It literally would be a strike, then the static would build again, the gear buzzing again, battery taste in the air, fingers arcing to the rock again, then boom another strike discharge and it would start all over. Every 15-20sec, for what had to have been half an hour. My partner finished the pitch soaked, but above most of the lighting. He stayed below the ridgeline, abandoned all his metal gear, wedged himself in some rocks and started to belay me across the running sheet of water that had become the traversing slab. I, meanwhile, was in the thick of the lightning. He said afterwards that looking down it looked like a giant fireworks show all around me as I seconded the pitch, and that honestly he didn't want to be connected to me via a soaking wet rope as he felt like Benjamin Franklin with a kite. Anyway, we made it out ok. Both of us lost feeling in our fingertips for about a month as a result of all the constant arc'ing between our fingers and the rock. How we didn't take a direct hit is beyond me, I'm still boggled by it. Whatever the case, I've never been so scared shitless in my entire life. So, be careful up there with those weather stats. Our storm wasn't anywhere close to the afternoon as predicted, and while there were a couple clouds over Estes as we were midway up the climb, above us it was total blue (as seen in the pic). That storm went from Nothing to ass-whoopin' Something in under 2 pitches time.
Damn, crazy story Erik. Glad you guys came back alive from that one. I'm curious, what time did you start on Syke's and what time did the precip & lightening start?
Erik W · · Santa Cruz, CA · Joined Mar 2007 · Points: 280
Kenan wrote: ... what time did you start on Syke's and what time did the precip & lightening start?
Thankfully my saved pics have time stamps so I don't have to count on memory. Started the climb at 7:15am, hail (was actually more like graupel) started at noon, lightning prob around 12:45 or so. Back at the base and in t-shirts by 2:45pm.

When we were under the roof and the precip started we debated bailing down. We had one rope with us, and the pulls from possible rap locations didn't look super great... and we needed 'super great'. About 2 months prior to this climb, the same partner and I had to bail off the Flying Buttress in a storm. On that occurrence, our ropes got stuck while bailing and we had to chop both of them as lightning was coming in fast and we needed to keep loosing elevation ASAP. '20% chance of storms' was the forecast on that day.

With that experience fresh in our minds, we were definitely hyper-aware of anything that could hinder a clean rope pull now on Spearhead, as a stuck rope here would mean we'd be forced to ride the storm out, soaked, likely at a hanging belay somewhere on the face. Given the options, we were both certain that up and over was safer at the time than down.

In hindsight, without knowing how bad the lighting was going to get, I think I would have made the same decision. With that experience in mind, however, if I had to do it over again I'd probably crawl up deep under the roof and ride it out.
Danny Inman · · Arvada · Joined Jan 2005 · Points: 860

I read this and nearly chimed in, but Eric beat me to it! Those two experiences have led me to use 10% as my bar. The forecast percentage of rain/storms is spatial, not probabilistic.

Scott McMahon · · Boulder, CO · Joined Feb 2006 · Points: 1,425
Danny Inman wrote:I read this and nearly chimed in, but Eric beat me to it! Those two experiences have led me to use 10% as my bar. The forecast percentage of rain/storms is spatial, not probabilistic.
Really only 10%? Wow!! I only say that since 9 out of 10 Colorado days seem to get teh "20% chance" label. I hemmed and hawed over 40-50% yesterday (yes I have also had terrifying experiences).

Good to see everyone being safe!
Dave Bn · · Boise, ID · Joined Jul 2011 · Points: 10
Mike McKinnon wrote:I had a friend just do the north ridge of spearhead this week-end. Sat/Sun. he said it was great weather. Part of alpine is making the effort and then make the judgement call once there.
Last Saturday (Aug-10): 30% chance of T-storms after noon. Last 1.5 pitches and descent off of Spearhead were in an intense graupel storm with some rain (but no thunder luckily)

Last Thursday (Aug-15): 20% chance of T-storms after noon. Spent close to an hour on the summit of Sharkstooth, leaving at around 1:30 pm with not a single storm cloud in sight.

I agree with the above re: spatial, not probabilistic nature of the forecast. Either way I think 30% seems to be the inflection point around which decisions are based (for me at least).
Jeff G · · Colorado · Joined Feb 2006 · Points: 1,098

Over the past 10 years I'm 14 for 15 on the Diamond and 29 for 30 on the Spearhead. I tend to go with high pressure when the monsoon moisture is cut off and there is a 30% or lower chance of precip. I don't go at all above 30%.

Andy Hansen · · Longmont, CO · Joined Sep 2009 · Points: 3,130

I used to be a bit conservative when it came to the percentage issue. Now I'm usually still gunning for routes if the percentages are in the 50-60% range. Last weekend I hiked up to the Spearhead even though it was dumping in the GG lot and for roughly an hour of hiking it continued to dump. The Spearhead was wet when we arrived and another party had bivied but were also bailing due to a wet Spearhead. I saw a group of two heading in as we were heading out... I wonder what ever became of their day. Anyway, I've had success and fortunately no near misses yet. But, as it's been said before, you never know if you don't go or "hard sayin' not knowin." Good luck.

Joshua1979 · · Colorado Springs, CO · Joined Apr 2010 · Points: 15
Erik W wrote:The second you mentioned Spearhead and weather my body went Pavlov and started shaking. Bad memories. A couple years back my partner and I went up to do the Sickle with a forecast of 30% showers in late afternoon. No biggie, we'd be done by then. We hiked in the night before and bivied under a rock, thereby giving us the greatest chance of an early start the next morning, with lots of energy from all those zzzz's. From a pitch below the roof: ....and just 2 pitches later: We didn't really stress too much when the hail started while we were on the crux roof pitch. No problem climbing in hail, and it wasn't cold at all. But then the hail turned to rain as my partner started the slab traverse. And then the lighting started. Everywhere. It literally would be a strike, then the static would build again, the gear buzzing again, battery taste in the air, fingers arcing to the rock again, then boom another strike discharge and it would start all over. Every 15-20sec, for what had to have been half an hour. My partner finished the pitch soaked, but above most of the lighting. He stayed below the ridgeline, abandoned all his metal gear, wedged himself in some rocks and started to belay me across the running sheet of water that had become the traversing slab. I, meanwhile, was in the thick of the lightning. He said afterwards that looking down it looked like a giant fireworks show all around me as I seconded the pitch, and that honestly he didn't want to be connected to me via a soaking wet rope as he felt like Benjamin Franklin with a kite. Anyway, we made it out ok. Both of us lost feeling in our fingertips for about a month as a result of all the constant arc'ing between our fingers and the rock. How we didn't take a direct hit is beyond me, I'm still boggled by it. Whatever the case, I've never been so scared shitless in my entire life. So, be careful up there with those weather stats. Our storm wasn't anywhere close to the afternoon as predicted, and while there were a couple clouds over Estes as we were midway up the climb, above us it was total blue (as seen in the pic). That storm went from Nothing to ass-whoopin' Something in under 2 pitches time.
Your expression in the 2nd pic is priceless.. Glad you guys got out of that one alright.
Patrick Vernon · · Grand Junction, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 965

I do the same as Jeff, rarely go above 30%. Growing up in Estes I always took lightening very seriously.

Andy Laakmann · · Bend, OR · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 1,990

Here is a useful tool that pilots use.

hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.…

It's the "quantative precipitation forecast". You can get the total amount of moisture expected by day, within 6 hour blocks. More moisture this time of year in Colorado, obviously equals more convection.

Of course, the further you go out that less accurate it may be... but it is another tool in the quiver.

Some things to be aware: these are only updated once a day in the AM. The timestamp on the images are ZULU time (UTC).

Here is an image for tomorrow. Based on this, there is NO way I'd personally plan to climb anything in the alpine manana.

example

Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

Colorado
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