Understanding Near Misses

In occupational safety there is a "safety pyramid" that states for every accident there are hundreds of near misses. Over the past 16 years of climbing I recall about a dozen 'oops', that could have gone very wrong. Most of these have been at belay stations. With a rash of accidents on MP and climbing websites, I wonder if others have experienced the same thing. I think it reinforces the idea that you always need to be on your game and never stop learning.

Yes.

When I'm rapping at the end of a long multipitch day I will often triple check everything audibly. There have been times where I caught a mistake on the third run through.

The only close call I have had was two weeks ago on Cascade Falls(300m, WI3). We were soloing one of the lower steps when my tool blew out of the super brittle ice (it was -30 degrees F). I slid/fell/tumbled 10m off the very top of the step. The next step was about 25m, easily enough to kill me. I figured I was dead so I just closed my eyes and waited... somehow I came to a stop less than a meter from the lip of the big step. I got VERY lucky.

This incident taught me a lot about being overconfident. I'll always remember that no matter how brave or how confident I feel, the mountain does not care.

It's interesting how many climbers have a 'it can't happen' to me mindset. It's always the other guys fault or poor decision making. Many fail to realize it's the little things that kill you in the end such as a seasoned climber that forgets to clip an auto belay.

Ah Heinrich's pyramid theory! I think in the context of climbing the accident pyramid could have some value, but I feel that it does not accurately reflect the data. The original pyramid had 3 layers (300 near misses: 29 minor injuries: 1 serious injury) and was later updated with up to 6 depending on who was creating the pyramid. I think that while it can put some things into perspective it does not address the underlying deficiencies that occurred to result in an incident (prefer not to use the term accident for definition).
It is my belief from the research that I am currently involved in that incidents don't occur from a "it cant happen to me" attitude most of the time. I believe that it tends to be a combination of; missing controls, lax procedures, and a lack of knowledge. Combine these factors create hazardous conditions, and often complacency in more experienced climbers. My experience as a safety professional has taught me that a general lack of knowledge tends to be the biggest factor followed by complacency when the root cause of an incident is investigated. Investigations done by CSP's have shown that you are most likely to be involved in an incident between 0<5yrs 20<yrs from a lack of knowledge initially, and an attitude of complacency after you have been doing a job for some time. The time in-between is almost a grace period is where the pyramid comes into play. It is where you will begin with unsafe actions, because of the amount of exposure the likelihood that an incident will occur becomes greater. People are taught incorrect ways of doing things which results in lax procedures, and missing controls from their system.

The only near miss I can think of was cleaning a sport route, good stance so I only had one tether to the anchor. Pulling hte rope through the rings to rap down managed to unscrew the gate on my tether and cause the gate to partiall open. I learned that day that even if you are in a good spot redundancy is important as ever.

Hmann2 wrote:Ah Heinrich's pyramid theory! I think in the context of climbing the accident pyramid could have some value, but I feel that it does not accurately reflect the data. The original pyramid had 3 layers (300 near misses: 29 minor injuries: 1 serious injury) and was later updated with up to 6 depending on who was creating the pyramid. I think that while it can put some things into perspective it does not address the underlying deficiencies that occurred to result in an incident (prefer not to use the term accident for definition). It is my belief from the research that I am currently involved in that incidents don't occur from a "it cant happen to me" attitude most of the time. I believe that it tends to be a combination of; missing controls, lax procedures, and a lack of knowledge. Combine these factors create hazardous conditions, and often complacency in more experienced climbers. My experience as a safety professional has taught me that a general lack of knowledge tends to be the biggest factor followed by complacency when the root cause of an incident is investigated. Investigations done by CSP's have shown that you are most likely to be involved in an incident between 0<5yrs 20<yrs from a lack of knowledge initially, and an attitude of complacency after you have been doing a job for some time. The time in-between is almost a grace period is where the pyramid comes into play. It is where you will begin with unsafe actions, because of the amount of exposure the likelihood that an incident will occur becomes greater. People are taught incorrect ways of doing things which results in lax procedures, and missing controls from their system.

Catagorizing incidents as lack of knowledge and complacency doesn't completely reflect all potential risks either. You could also catagorize incidents into unsafe equipment and something aviation calls 'human factors'. Sometimes a climber may have good practical knowledge, but poor execution due to fear and environmental factors. Incidents are the only reports that seems to get attention because someone had to be physically rescued. I wish climbers would post more near misses. I know it doesn't make exciting reading for someone to post "my screw gate opened today due to rope drag", but I think it is a good start to identify risks that climbers should be thinking about.

An interesting app that I recently found is the Alpine Near Miss reporting app. If anyone reading this has the ability I think they should download the app and use it. Having a record immediately after an incident is important to improve the safety of our sport.

I will check that out. Do you know what devices are supported?

I agree that others should start taking action. This sport is often labeled high risk, but it's tough to substanciate any real data. Risks can be managed in a way that promotes fun, excitement and adventure.

A definite yes to the near misses, both experienced firsthand and witnessed in other climbing parties/situations. One thing comes to mind. Never be shy about speaking up to your partner and double checking the basics. Is your harness doubled back, is your first piece of gear any good, did you clip the lead rope through the anchor if the start of the pitch is runout, etc. ? There's no harm in speaking up, but failing to do so could be catastrophic. Once a buddy and I were topping out in the Gunks. A guy showed up with his girlfriend and another friend in tow. He was going to show them how to rappel off a big tree. He tossed the single line (with no knot in the end) down the cliff. We could see the tail hanging in space over the lip of a huge overhang. We urged him to reconsider at which he took umbrage and then blustered a bit so as not to lose face in front of his lady. We persisted despite everyone's social discomfort, and finally he relented. More than likely a life was saved or at least a rescue avoided.

Sometimes I marvel that I'm still alive. Loose rock, long leader falls, pulled protection, blitzkrieg lightning and hail storms endured, wet rock, rockfall, jammed rappel lines, you name it. The other day I was soloing a 5.4 gully. My mind wandered a bit while I took a pause. Then my foot slipped off a water polished hold like it was a banana skin. My body weight came onto my left arm which straightened completely. Luckily my hand was latched around a solid flake. I looked down over the ledgy terrain to the ground forty feet below. It would have been an ugly, body crushing or fatal fall. Climbing and gravity are utterly unforgiving. Be wise, circumspect and cautious at all times.

alpinenearmiss.org/app.php
Looks like just iPhone currently. But you can also submit reports on their website.

About four years ago rapping after cleaning a sport route I was approximately 30 ft off the deck when I felt a knot at my hand. I didn't pull enough rope through for both ends to meet the ground. Almost had a heart attack but was glad I remembered to knot the rope.

Lessons Learned: Always double check, always watch your climber.

Hmann2 wrote:It is my belief from the research that I am currently involved in that incidents don't occur from a "it cant happen to me" attitude most of the time.

I tend to agree. I'm pretty conscious of my own mind's fallibility to exactly follow safe procedures -- usually because of distraction, sometimes because of emotion / ego + trying to "prove" something (to who?). I've seen myself forget safety things (less often than lots of other people, but still), and that scares me -- and makes me want to be "extra careful" to follow procedures. But knowing all that is not enough. The individual human mind is not trustworthy with maintaining safety time after time after time from low-probability events.

Hmann2 wrote:My experience as a safety professional has taught me that a general lack of knowledge tends to be the biggest factor followed by complacency

Yes that fits -- novices get nailed because they have no clue some of the subtle things which might go wrong. Later ...
Complacency Yes -- which I think is complicated. Likely it's actually a collection of different causes. Partly complacency is a "rational" human response to low-probability hazards -- after a few years we've gotten away with various safety lapses -- but are we "wiser" or just lucky?

So part of the survival game is to learn from other people's near misses (and sad hits), not just the statistically small sample of our own.

But really ... need to have well-designed procedures (which might be "social" like Partner-Check) and well-designed equipment - that minimize some of the impacts of the fallibility of the human mind. Or maybe the future is intelligent climbing equipment -- or a "smart-watch" which somehow detects when you've omitted a safety step.

Ken