I was in Pagosa a month or so ago and it was dry for the most part. But if I'm rembering correctly, Piedra follows a very deep Valley. I would scout a topo to see if the area you are hoping to visit is southern facing. And hey even if you get cold/wet, there are hot springs in the river that will melt your skin! Careful!
It's been really balmy in SW CO. If you're thinking about visiting the Piedra crag, it's a bit higher than town and the concentration of routes are east facing, receiving a bit of morning sun but shade through the afternoon. I say it's definitely worth checking out; a really cool crag!