El Nino - January AZ visit impacts?

Hello all. Had originally planned a trip West for some winter climbing in Cochese and Mt Lemmon, but the doomsday forecast for above average rain in the southwest this winter has us reconsidering. What are the thoughts of local climbers? What have past El Nino patterns resulted in terms of persistent rain/crappy climbing weather?

Just bring an inner tube... then, even if it rains you'll have a good time.

In all seriousness though, we have heard this 'abnormally wet winter' stuff in the past, and I was still snowboarding on rocks in December and January.. You'll never know until the week of.

How long is your trip?

We get about an inch of rain per month in Dec, Jan, and Feb. During good el nino years, that tends to double. That said, it's often intermittent, a good rainstorm for a day or two, and then dry for two weeks.

If you're bored, here's an article on el nino in Tucson during 1997/8.

We only have about 10 days. Unfortunately we can't wait for the week ahead to cancel tickets and other various reservations (dog sitting, etc). Hmmm... thanks for giving us something to think about.

Abnormally wet weather forecast:

It's still gonna be dryer than fuck, unless it dumps, so pretty much business as usual in the SW.

So far this fall it has seemed like it has been very wet compared to normal. (raining for a few hours 1 day per week). However I would not let that deter you from your trip. Normal around here seems to be 1-2 overcast rainy days, where it sprinkles all day, per month through the winter. So I would predict that if the rains do come you may get rained out of 1-2 days of your 10. Lots of awesome stuff to do on rainy days that you might not consider on a splitter bluebird day where climbing dawn to dusk is the only priority. Plus the desert comes alive when it rains. I hope it RAINS!

Bryan Manning wrote:http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

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Hey Kevin, it isn't the first time El Nino was supposed to make a very wet year here. Sometimes it does and most times it doesn't. I would plan your trip as odds are you will get plenty of climbing in. I would bet you will get lot more climbing in than other parts of the country.