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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 14, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
Hey Guys, Have long standing plans to finally get up and tick the 3rd Pillar with my good buddy... The weekend coming up (7/17/14) is one of the only weekends we can both get together to do it, as he is insanely busy, and even I am regrettably much more of a weekend warrior than I ever have been as of late... It feels like this is one of our only windows for this route to go down together this summer. Lee Vining shows a pretty consistent 30% chance of electrical storms throughout the week, Tuolumne Meadows shows only a 5% chance of precip... I've gotten trapped in a "30% chance of thunderstorms" thunderstorm at altitude before, and can honestly say I feel lucky to be alive from it. I understand they are no joke. That isn't the question here. Just based on the topography of the area, it seems like the Dana Plateau is a pretty terrible place to be during a lightning storm. Anybody have tales of epics that they can shed good hindsight info from when the weather went to shit on this route? Is it best to rap, leaving gear, just to avoid the plateau if weather comes? Do you get any warning of the storm or does it typically come directly from your blind side (southwest)? If the weather report worsens, we probably wont make an attempt. But as is, we will be going for it. Most likely an alpine start on Saturday to hopefully avoid thunderstorms that generally form in the afternoon. Thanks for your tales in advance!
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FrankPS
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Jul 14, 2014
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Atascadero, CA
· Joined Nov 2009
· Points: 276
I'm going this weekend up to Mt. Lyell in Yosemite. I don't like the 30% chance. I know if I start early (not from the trailhead, but from a high camp), I can possibly summit and get down, at least partway, before the afternoon thunderstorms come. If the sky is looking cloudy/sketchy, it's a real judgment call as to whether to attempt a prominent formation. If the dark thunderclouds appear before you even start your climb, the smart thing to do is to not chance it. YMMV.
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Cor
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Jul 14, 2014
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Sandbagging since 1989
· Joined Mar 2006
· Points: 1,445
Use the weather.gov (nws) 7 day forecast page. Scroll down, and on the right is the hourly weather graph. This is a great thing to see when things (%) go up or down by the hour. Also on the map on that page you can zoom in, and get a point forecast for "The mountain" (at elevation). Then look at the hourly graph. This has worked well for us here in Colorado. Hope this helps you choose things some... But 30%. I would go for it... C
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Fat Dad
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Jul 14, 2014
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Los Angeles, CA
· Joined Nov 2007
· Points: 60
Good tip Cor. I'm interested in other responses since a buddy and I were planning on the T-bolt-Sill traverse this weekend.
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fossana
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Jul 15, 2014
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leeds, ut
· Joined Apr 2006
· Points: 13,318
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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 15, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
Thanks for the responses guys, I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on the report, i.e. 30% of the day on or near this peak is gonna be no bueno. What I'm really hoping to get is a few TR's of when the weather didn't cooperate on this climb and what they did (or wish'd they'd done).... Probably a small pool of qualified respondents, I'm know... but one can hope.
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Tyler Wick
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Jul 15, 2014
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Bishop, CA
· Joined Oct 2010
· Points: 200
In my experience anything 20% and above in the Sierra (from the NWS) usually means more like 50% chance its going to tstorm at some point in the day. Hopefully this system drops all its moisture early in the week and will be mostly cleared out by the weekend. If not, watch the build up on Friday and you should be able to get an idea of what your timeline will be on Saturday. Edit to add: If you get caught in a thunderstorm on that route, rap or hunker down if there is a decent spot. You can rap with a single and will probably have to leave gear. You definitely don't want to be on top.
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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 15, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
I agree Tyler. In my experience with the Sierra a 30% chance is almost a guarantee it will storm at some point during the day. Hopefully we can get to Lee Vining before dark on Friday to see what it looks like. We will be leaving the Reno area by 3p hopefully. I feel like the most likely bad scenario is we get the route done in clear weather, but get nailed on our descent back to the truck. Never been to the plateau, but it looks massive, with almost no topographic reliefs, which concerns me... Once we are off the Plateau it should be easier to find a place to hunker down if needed. I'm wondering if retreating back to a gully near the third pillar is a better option if we get hit less than 1/2 way on the plateau while descending.
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Greg Barnes
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Jul 15, 2014
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Unknown Hometown
· Joined Apr 2006
· Points: 2,060
Keep checking the forecast in case it improves - it often does at the end of thunderstorm cycles. If it doesn't, pick something else. The plateau is one of the worst spots you can imagine in a thunderstorm, and you may not be able to see buildup from the route!
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Rohan de Launey
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Jul 15, 2014
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South Lake Tahoe
· Joined May 2012
· Points: 15
Just got back from day trip to tuolumne. Dana got creamed about noon by rain, thunder and lightning around 1. If you're set on it start pre dawn and be into the descent by noon. Storm came from south east and was the usual summer pattern as the east side heats up.
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Andy Laakmann
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Jul 16, 2014
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Bend, OR
· Joined Jan 2001
· Points: 1,990
This is my favorite tool for predicting precipitation in the the short or long term forecast. You can get down to 6 hour increments, and it is very accurate in the 24-48 hour window. It doesn't differentiate between convective (thunderstorm) or stratus (normal) precipitation... but in Summer in the mountains, convective precip is the only kind! :) You need to convert from ZULU to local time yourself. This is an aviation related site. hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.…
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Fat Dad
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Jul 16, 2014
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Los Angeles, CA
· Joined Nov 2007
· Points: 60
Have fun Tyson. My trip fell thru (for reasons other than weather) but the forecast appears to be improving. Third Pillar is an awesome climb. The Dana Plateau is a great place as well. Enjoy.
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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 18, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
Weather report has since been upgraded to 40%... Hopefully we can make a day out of Tuolomne before the weather hits, Dana sounds like an epic in the making Saturday. We'll see how she looks in the afternoon tomorrow when we get there. Thanks everyone for your two cents.
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Colonel Mustard
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Jul 18, 2014
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Sacramento, CA
· Joined Sep 2005
· Points: 1,241
Wrap yourselves in asbestos and climb only using soft goods (i.e. jammed knots, etc.). When it gets really bad, hold a marmot with a tinfoil hat over your head to absorb the blow! You will be safe from the fury of Thor! But seriously, that sucks. Usually, you can squeeze mornings to early afternoon on a t storm day. You should get back to that Olmstead cragging, or visit Murphy Creek! Plenty of cragging options....
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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 18, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
Mustard I was looking at Lucky Streaks, sounds like a fine line! I know you've raved about it to me before, but I hadn't really looked into it until last night surveying my options... Sounds awesome!
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Ryan Williams
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Jul 18, 2014
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London (sort of)
· Joined May 2009
· Points: 1,245
Lucky Streaks is an awesome route. It's hard to compare to the Third Pillar though. Very different climbing. It's definitely harder. I'm not sure being on the top of Fairview is any better than being on top of the Dana Plateau though. At least you can sprint to the forest if you're on top of the plateau. Literally, as soon as you top out, the terrain is a big meadow and you get back down pretty fast even if you're just walking. I don't really remember the descent off of Fairview but I'm sure it would suck in a thunderstorm. Also not an easy route to bail on
even when leaving gear. If you start at 4 am you could be descending to the base of the Third Pillar at sunrise (which would be beautiful) and be headed down before noon. The position and the last few pitches of the route are worth it. The climbing is also easier than Lucky Streaks by a long shot. And there is a big chimney in the middle that is protected from above in case you need to ride out a storm.
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Tyson Waldron
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Jul 18, 2014
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Reno, NV
· Joined Apr 2012
· Points: 910
Thanks Ryan, ya I haven't been on top of Fairview before, so I am also a bit unclear on how hard getting off it in a hurry would be, I just liked the short approach situation of it in comparison to Dana, and the fact that it doesn't go anywhere near the true summit (not that that spells safety in thunderstorms by any stretch!). Good to know that it might be difficult to bail off of though, I dont have a topo of it, but I see now on "Lucky Streaks". Photo by Blitzo. some traversing up high. I have no issue leaving gear if it's a dangerous situation... It can always be recovered. The grade of Lucky should be in my wheel house though. Trust me I still really want Dana above anything else! An alpine start is still a possibility, we'll see what the weather does this afternoon. We are headed out in a few.
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Ryan Williams
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Jul 19, 2014
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London (sort of)
· Joined May 2009
· Points: 1,245
Hope you're asleep right now! I woke up this morning to tstorm forcast in most of England as well, so I'm going to work instead and taking Monday off, hoping that it will be warm and dry enough for a DWS trip!
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Colonel Mustard
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Jul 19, 2014
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Sacramento, CA
· Joined Sep 2005
· Points: 1,241
Uh, I don't think I raved about Lucky Streaks? Good, but not great like OZ. Worth doing, just overhyped, in my opinion. But you may love it. Get ready for a calf pump!
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Fat Dad
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Jul 19, 2014
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Los Angeles, CA
· Joined Nov 2007
· Points: 60
Bit of thead drift, but I think Lucky Streaks is a great route. Certainly OZ is better, but if that's a 10 then Lucky Streaks is a 9. Still not a good place to be in poor weather though.
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Ryan Williams
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Jul 20, 2014
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London (sort of)
· Joined May 2009
· Points: 1,245
Ha, if Lucky Streaks is 5.9 then the Third Pillar is 5.8! So
what happened?
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