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weather expectations in the Black

Original Post
Jonathan S · · Golden, CO · Joined Sep 2009 · Points: 176

I am planning a trip to Black Canyon this Fri-Sat. NOAA point forecast shows roughly 30-40% chance thunderstorms both days. What are your experiences for how forecasts translate to reality? For example does 40% translate to getting soaked, or just a drizzle? Also, what is the actual lightning risk when climbing in the canyon? Thanks.

Adam Brink · · trying to get to Sardinia · Joined Mar 2001 · Points: 560

A local would be able to say better but with that weather forecast you could get anything. It could drizzle or it could pour for an extended period. Just remember, if the weather really goes south, retreat is not easy or safe. Personally, I would think really hard before heading down into the Black with a weather forecast like that.

Andrew Mayer · · Driggs, ID · Joined Nov 2010 · Points: 131

I lucked out the one route I've climbed in the Black (forecast was 50% chance of showers) but we had partly cloudy skies and not a drop of rain.

I wouldn't count on this again though..

Fleetwood Matt · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Apr 2006 · Points: 620

I can remember doing exactly what you're doing, looking at commitment to climb out of the Black, staring at NOAA point forecast. Our rule was that 30% was always good to climb, 40% might mean a little sprinkle. The theory typically held. Bigger things to worry about in the Black than lightning. Good luck!

Jonathan S · · Golden, CO · Joined Sep 2009 · Points: 176

Thanks for the replies. Due to the persistent unstable weather, some of which is producing heavy rain, we are adjusting our plans to head somewhere less committing with easier escape. I look forward to climbing in the Black another time!

Scott McMahon · · Boulder, CO · Joined Feb 2006 · Points: 1,425

Looks like shite all across CO this weekend...figures for a 3 day, but at least we aren't California right now.

Glenn Schuler · · Monument, Co. · Joined Jun 2006 · Points: 1,330

Forecast for the Black?? Partially desperate with a 50% chance of whoopass!!

Seriously though, I think you're making the right call Jonathan. Weather looks like shit.

Michael Schneiter · · Glenwood Springs, CO · Joined Apr 2002 · Points: 10,406

Sounds like a good call if you've got other places to go. In my experience that forecast for the Black probably means some afternoon showers. Which means if you play your cards right, get going early and climb fast, you may beat the rain. Of course, last year we got hammered by the rain on the crux of Cloak and Dagger. We chilled for a bit and then it cleared and we climbed again. The whole weekend went like that so we never got to do what we really wanted to do.

Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

Colorado
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