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Jonathan S
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May 21, 2014
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Golden, CO
· Joined Sep 2009
· Points: 176
I am planning a trip to Black Canyon this Fri-Sat. NOAA point forecast shows roughly 30-40% chance thunderstorms both days. What are your experiences for how forecasts translate to reality? For example does 40% translate to getting soaked, or just a drizzle? Also, what is the actual lightning risk when climbing in the canyon? Thanks.
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Adam Brink
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May 21, 2014
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trying to get to Sardinia
· Joined Mar 2001
· Points: 560
A local would be able to say better but with that weather forecast you could get anything. It could drizzle or it could pour for an extended period. Just remember, if the weather really goes south, retreat is not easy or safe. Personally, I would think really hard before heading down into the Black with a weather forecast like that.
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Andrew Mayer
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May 21, 2014
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Driggs, ID
· Joined Nov 2010
· Points: 131
I lucked out the one route I've climbed in the Black (forecast was 50% chance of showers) but we had partly cloudy skies and not a drop of rain. I wouldn't count on this again though..
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Fleetwood Matt
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May 21, 2014
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Unknown Hometown
· Joined Apr 2006
· Points: 620
I can remember doing exactly what you're doing, looking at commitment to climb out of the Black, staring at NOAA point forecast. Our rule was that 30% was always good to climb, 40% might mean a little sprinkle. The theory typically held. Bigger things to worry about in the Black than lightning. Good luck!
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Jonathan S
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May 22, 2014
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Golden, CO
· Joined Sep 2009
· Points: 176
Thanks for the replies. Due to the persistent unstable weather, some of which is producing heavy rain, we are adjusting our plans to head somewhere less committing with easier escape. I look forward to climbing in the Black another time!
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Scott McMahon
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May 22, 2014
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Boulder, CO
· Joined Feb 2006
· Points: 1,425
Looks like shite all across CO this weekend...figures for a 3 day, but at least we aren't California right now.
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Glenn Schuler
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May 22, 2014
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Monument, Co.
· Joined Jun 2006
· Points: 1,330
Forecast for the Black?? Partially desperate with a 50% chance of whoopass!! Seriously though, I think you're making the right call Jonathan. Weather looks like shit.
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Michael Schneiter
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May 22, 2014
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Glenwood Springs, CO
· Joined Apr 2002
· Points: 10,406
Sounds like a good call if you've got other places to go. In my experience that forecast for the Black probably means some afternoon showers. Which means if you play your cards right, get going early and climb fast, you may beat the rain. Of course, last year we got hammered by the rain on the crux of Cloak and Dagger. We chilled for a bit and then it cleared and we climbed again. The whole weekend went like that so we never got to do what we really wanted to do.
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